Weight gain in pregnancy and infant birthweight after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Increased weight gain and decreased physical activity have been reported in some populations since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but this has not been well characterized in pregnant populations. OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to characterize the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated countermeasures on pregnancy weight gain and infant birthweight in a US cohort. METHODS: Washington State pregnancies and births (1 January, 2016 to 28 December, 2020) from a multihospital quality improvement organization were examined for pregnancy weight gain, pregnancy weight gain z-score adjusted for pregestational BMI and gestational age, and infant birthweight z-score, using an interrupted time series design that controls for underlying time trends. We used mixed-effect linear regression models, controlled for seasonality and clustered at the hospital level, to model the weekly time trends and changes on 23 March, 2020, the onset of local COVID-19 countermeasures. RESULTS: Our analysis included 77,411 pregnant people and 104,936 infants with complete outcome data. The mean pregnancy weight gain was 12.1 kg (z-score: -0.14) during the prepandemic time period (March to December 2019) and increased to 12.4 kg (z-score: -0.09) after the onset of the pandemic (March to December 2020). Our time series analysis found that after the pandemic onset, the mean weight gain increased by 0.49 kg (95% CI: 0.25, 0.73 kg) and weight gain z-score increased by 0.080 (95% CI: 0.03, 0.13), with no changes in the baseline yearly trend. Infant birthweight z-scores were unchanged (-0.004; 95% CI: -0.04, 0.03). Overall, the results were unchanged in analyses stratified by pregestational BMI categories. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a modest increase in weight gain after the onset of the pandemic among pregnant people but no changes in infant birthweights. This weight change could be more important in high BMI subgroups.

The impact of COVID-19 and national pandemic responses on health service utilisation in seven low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted health services worldwide, which may have led to increased mortality and secondary disease outbreaks. Disruptions vary by patient population, geographic area, and service. While many reasons have been put forward to explain disruptions, few studies have empirically investigated their causes. OBJECTIVE: We quantify disruptions to outpatient services, facility-based deliveries, and family planning in seven low- and middle-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and quantify relationships between disruptions and the intensity of national pandemic responses. METHODS: We leveraged routine data from 104 Partners In Health-supported facilities from January 2016 to December 2021. We first quantified COVID-19-related disruptions in each country by month using negative binomial time series models. We then modelled the relationship between disruptions and the intensity of national pandemic responses, as measured by the stringency index from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. RESULTS: For all the studied countries, we observed at least one month with a significant decline in outpatient visits during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also observed significant cumulative drops in outpatient visits across all months in Lesotho, Liberia, Malawi, Rwanda, and Sierra Leone. A significant cumulative decrease in facility-based deliveries was observed in Haiti, Lesotho, Mexico, and Sierra Leone. No country had significant cumulative drops in family planning visits. For a 10-unit increase in the average monthly stringency index, the proportion deviation in monthly facility outpatient visits compared to expected fell by 3.9% (95% CI: -5.1%, -1.6%). No relationship between stringency of pandemic responses and utilisation was observed for facility-based deliveries or family planning. CONCLUSIONS: Context-specific strategies show the ability of health systems to sustain essential health services during the pandemic. The link between pandemic responses and healthcare utilisation can inform purposeful strategies to ensure communities have access to care and provide lessons for promoting the utilisation of health services elsewhere.

Effect of unmanned aerial vehicle (drone) delivery on blood product delivery time and wastage in Rwanda: a retrospective, cross-sectional study and time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: The accessibility of blood and blood products remains challenging in many countries because of the complex supply chain of short lifetime products, timely access, and demand fluctuation at the hospital level. In an effort to improve availability and delivery times, Rwanda launched the use of drones to deliver blood products to remote health facilities. We evaluated the effect of this intervention on blood product delivery times and wastage. METHODS: We studied data from 20 health facilities between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2019, in Rwanda. First, we did a cross-sectional comparison of data on emergency delivery times from the drone operator collected between March 17, 2017, and Dec 31, 2019, with two sources of estimated driving times (Regional Centre for Blood Transfusion estimates and Google Maps). Second, we used interrupted time series analysis and monthly administrative data to assess changes in blood product expirations after the commencement of drone deliveries. FINDINGS: Between March 17, 2017, and Dec 31, 2019, 12 733 blood product orders were delivered by drones. 5517 (43%) of 12 733 were emergency orders. The mean drone delivery time was 49·6 min (95% CI 49·1 to 50·2), which was 79 min faster than existing road delivery methods based on estimated driving times (p<0·0001) and 98 min faster based on Google Maps estimates (p<0·0001). The decrease in mean delivery time ranged from 3 min to 211 min depending on the distance to the facility and road quality. We also found a decrease of 7·1 blood unit expirations per month after the start of drone delivery (95% CI -11·8 to -2·4), which translated to a 67% reduction at 12 months. INTERPRETATION: We found that drone delivery led to faster delivery times and less blood component wastage in health facilities. Future studies should investigate if these improvements are cost-effective, and whether drone delivery might be effective for other pharmaceutical and health supplies that cannot be easily stored at remote facilities. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes for Health Research.

Childhood immunization during the COVID-19 pandemic: experiences in Haiti, Lesotho, Liberia and Malawi.

OBJECTIVE: To examine changes in vaccination of children younger than 1 year during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (March 2020-August 2021) in Haiti, Lesotho, Liberia and Malawi. METHODS: We used data from health management information systems on vaccination of children aged 12 months or younger in districts supported by Partners In Health. We used data from January 2016 to February 2020 and a linear model with negative binomial distribution to estimate the expected immunization counts for March 2020-August 2021 with 95% prediction intervals, assuming no pandemic. We compared these expected levels with observed values and estimated the immunization deficits or excesses during the pandemic months. FINDINGS: Baseline vaccination counts varied substantially by country, with Lesotho having the lowest count and Haiti the highest. We observed declines in vaccination administration early in the COVID-19 pandemic in Haiti, Lesotho and Liberia. Continued declines largely corresponded to high rates of COVID-19 infection and discrete stock-outs. By August 2021, vaccination levels had returned to close to or above expected levels in Haiti, Liberia and Lesotho; in Malawi levels remained below expected. CONCLUSION: Patterns of childhood immunization coverage varied by country over the course of the pandemic, with significantly lower than expected vaccination levels seen in one country during subsequent COVID-19 waves. Governments and health-care stakeholders should monitor vaccine coverage closely and consider interventions, such as community outreach, to avoid or combat the disruptions in childhood vaccination.

Mapping global trends in vaccine sales before and during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: While the COVID-19 pandemic may have substantially hindered the provision of routine immunisation services worldwide, we have little data on the impact of the pandemic on vaccine supply chains. METHODS: We used time-series analysis to examine global trends in vaccine sales for a total of 34 vaccines and combination vaccines using data from the IQVIA MIDAS Database between August 2014 and August 2020 across 84 countries. We grouped countries into three income-level categories, and we modelled the changes in vaccine sales from April to August 2020 versus April to August 2019 using autoregressive integrated moving average models. RESULTS: In March 2020, global sales of vaccines dropped from 1211.1 per 100 000 to 806.2 per 100 000 population in April 2020, an overall decrease of 33.4%; however, the vaccine sales interruptions recovered disproportionately across economies. Between April 2020 and August 2020, we found a significant decrease of 20.6% (p<0.001) in vaccine sales across high-income countries (HICs), in contrast with a significant increase of 10.7% (p<0.001) across lower middle-income countries (LMICs), relative to the same period in 2019. From August 2014 through August 2020, monthly per capita vaccine sales across HICs remained, on average, at least four times higher than in LMICs and nearly three times higher than in upper middle-income countries. CONCLUSION: Our study revealed the heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 on vaccine sales across economies while underlining the substantial consistent disparities in per capita vaccine sales before and during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Action to ensure equitable distribution of vaccines is needed.

Syndromic surveillance using monthly aggregate health systems information data: methods with application to COVID-19 in Liberia.

BACKGROUND: Early detection of SARS-CoV-2 circulation is imperative to inform local public health response. However, it has been hindered by limited access to SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic tests and testing infrastructure. In regions with limited testing capacity, routinely collected health data might be leveraged to identify geographical locales experiencing higher than expected rates of COVID-19-associated symptoms for more specific testing activities. METHODS: We developed syndromic surveillance tools to analyse aggregated health facility data on COVID-19-related indicators in seven low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), including Liberia. We used time series models to estimate the expected monthly counts and 95% prediction intervals based on 4 years of previous data. Here, we detail and provide resources for our data preparation procedures, modelling approach and data visualisation tools with application to Liberia. RESULTS: To demonstrate the utility of these methods, we present syndromic surveillance results for acute respiratory infections (ARI) at health facilities in Liberia during the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic (January through August 2020). For each month, we estimated the deviation between the expected and observed number of ARI cases for 325 health facilities and 15 counties to identify potential areas of SARS-CoV-2 circulation. CONCLUSIONS: Syndromic surveillance can be used to monitor health facility catchment areas for spikes in specific symptoms which may indicate SARS-CoV-2 circulation. The developed methods coupled with the existing infrastructure for routine health data systems can be leveraged to monitor a variety of indicators and other infectious diseases with epidemic potential.

Patient perspectives on the British Columbia Biosimilars Initiative: a qualitative descriptive study.

In May 2019, the Government of British Columbia (BC) announced the implementation of the Biosimilars Initiative, mandating the switch of biologic (originator) drugs to biosimilars for certain patient populations in the hopes of optimizing public resources. Through this qualitative study, we aimed to identify patients' perspectives as they undergo this change. From October 2019 to July 2020, we conducted nine pre- and six post-switch to biosimilar interviews with BC, English speaking participants, who were 18 years or older, and were currently taking a biologic medication. Participants were interviewed pre- and post-switch to a biosimilar medication and interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim for qualitative analysis. Interviews were thematically analysed and major themes and sub-categories were elucidated. The themes derived from pre and post-switch interviews captured participants' anticipated or experienced barriers and enablers to the policy change. In general, the fears and apprehension of participants approaching the switch, including concerns surrounding the efficacy and safety of biosimilars, were addressed by their rheumatologist and social support circles. For the most part, participants were able to successfully manage their disease regardless of their baseline concerns about efficacy and safety. Experiences of changes in health delivery models were also observed secondary to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic amongst participants. This study is the first of its kind to characterize the patient perspective regarding the BC Biosimilars Initiative. The incorporation of the patient perspective, including adequate provider-patient communication and shared decision-making can help to inform future non-medical switching policy changes.